Advanced Ratings

Horse Racing Ratings, Systems & Statistics.

Archive for the ‘Ratings’ Category

What to expect

Posted by advancedratings on 16/12/2009

If you would like to see how we produce our ratings each day and what to expect from the ratings please download this spreadsheet.

It contains everything you receive when you subscribe to the premium package. Ratings, betting systems and plenty of stats.

Download here

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How to use Info Boxes

Posted by advancedratings on 06/09/2009

How to use Info Boxes

A few key areas to check in a race are obviously the rating in column A, also note the race card is in the order of the ratings.

Next always check what I refer to as “info boxes”, these in short can determine the strength of the ratings and which races are more suitable to backing, laying or simply avoiding.

Check the strength of the ratings via the “Negative Rated” this displays the amount of horses equal to or below zero (0) and always check the biases and their respected average.

16 Runners 39.38 Avg Rating
4 Negative Rated 630 Bias A
60.92 Avg Rating
731 Bias B

Next check both Bias A & B the lower this figure is, the better it can be for backing and vice versa for laying. The above example indicates that you want to be looking at horses rated above 60.92 for backing and anything under 39.38 for laying. Using both the negative runners and biases to cut your field size down.

For the above example it would be a good laying opportunity, if

  • The horse was negative rated, due to their only been 4 negative rated and plenty of positive rated.
  • The horse was rated below 39 and at least three other horses rated above 60.
  • The horse was rated below 39 and its LTO form is regarded as poor (highlighted red form in column F indicates poor LTO form).
  • Or you could follow one of the laying systems TForm, T14, tc, TBias 6, TBias 8.

This next example below shows how the ratings can help you avoid backing in competitive races, the zero negative rated runners and the strength of the biases indicate that a lay is more suitable for this type of rating.

10 Runners 73.10 Avg Rating
0 Negative Rated 731 Bias A
73.10 Avg Rating
731 Bias B

Again without seeing the actual ratings for each horse you can easily tell whether to look into a back or lay bet for the race, it will become second nature to check these. The above example clearly states it’s a competitive race, the only reason I would back in the race was if

  • The top rated was 30+ clear of the second rated and had either blue form or a blue master rating.
  • Rated in the top 3 and above the average and had both blue form and a blue master rating.

To sum up for these types of examples I would generally either look for a lay or simply avoid and move onto the next race.

These next examples show good backing opportunities.

16 Runners -4.69 Avg Rating
8 Negative Rated -75 Bias A
41.38 Avg Rating
331 Bias B

Without seeing the ratings you can determine half the field are not worth backing via the amount of negative rated.

I would have a back bet in the race because…

  • Bias A is negative and preference is for a back bet.
  • The Bias B average indicates to look for a horse rated above 41.38.
  • Half the field is rated negative.
  • A top rated blue form & blue master rating in this type of race do very well and for the place punter these are very profitable.
  • If you had three or less rated above the bias B then look for tricasts, forecasts or dutching the top 3 rated.

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    Exotic Bets

    Posted by advancedratings on 06/09/2009

    Forecast, reverse forecasts, tricasts and exotic bets.

    It can be quite rewarding to have these type of bets, I do so regularly but the key to them is in the staking. Without going into too much detail, you do need correct staking throughout all your betting activities, it is one of the main reasons why people do not make their betting pay.

    To determine your stake for a forecast or tricast bet, you will need to work out your main betting bank, and stakes for your single bets, once you have determined your min and max stake for single bets, then you can work out your stake for a forecast or tricast bet, this can also be used for any type of exotic bet.

    I will do a separate post on staking in a few weeks, which will go into greater detail.

    When using the ratings to pick an exotic bet like a tricast, you need to focus on races whereby the top 3 in the ratings have a clear edge over the remaining horses.

    A good example would be the 2:50 Stratford on the 5th September 2009, whereby the top 3 looked the clear pick for a tricast and/or a reverse forecast bet.

    Please see the race in question and ratings by clicking here.

    For starters it was a weak race, which was indicated by the amount of negative rated runners; in this instance 8 are rated negative, which was 50% of the field, so we have already cut the field in half!

    So concentrating on the remaining 8 runners, you only have 3 with a rating over 38 and again the same 3 have a rating over the average of bias B, which is indicating these are the 3 to concentrate on.

    A quick glance to the “Ratings +” shows that these 3 have about the same amount of positive attributes and a quick look at the trainers form suggests that these 3 horses are also trained by 3 trainers who are having more winners and/or placed horses than any other trainer in the race.

    The winning tricast paid £499.71, there have been a few of these of late.

    W also just missed out on 2 bumper payouts, the ratings had highlighted 2 other races whereby we hit the forecasts but our tricast leg came home 4th each time and one by short margin which could have won many thousands due to the respected SP’s.

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    29/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 29/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    Yesterdays preview was a non runner and replaced by the 2nd rated which therefore became the top rated and the bet, it duly won.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    Today’s example race is the 3:45pm Galway.

    The bias B indicates that the top two look the ones to concentrate on.

    The bias A suggests this race is best tackled with a back bet.

    A decent draw which is indicated by the blue 10 in the draw column.

    Blue previous form indicates that the form is working out well.

    The only horse in the race with proven form over today’s going, which is indicated by the blue g.

    WIN Selection: BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN

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    28/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 28/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    Today’s example race is the 6:00pm Beverley.

    The bias B indicates that the top two look the ones to concentrate on.

    The top rated is clear of the second rated and looks a fair price.

    The trainer is bang in form which is indicated by the trainer form columns.

    A blue previous form and a blue master rating indicate that the horse has cracking form.

    Looks fairly treated having only been raised 3lb for its win last time out, which is indicated in the OR column.

    WIN Selection: SHAYLEE

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    27/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 27/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    Today’s example race is the 8:10pm Galway.

    A weak bias A indicates a good opportunity for a back bet.

    The top rated is clear of the second rated and looks a fair price.

    The trainer has the best record at the course and his horses are running well which is indicated by the trainer form columns.

    WIN Selection: ART BROKER

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    26/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 26/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    I have included two examples today because I wanted to show that even odds on shots can represent value.

    Today’s example race is the 3:35pm Carlisle.

    This looks a good opportunity for the clear top rated, a weak bias A and the average of bias B indicates only one potential winner.

    The jockey has ridden a winner at the course, which compared to the other jockeys is quite important in a race of this nature.

    The trainer has a good course record and is considered the best trainer in the race.

    The horse is also a “value bet” selection which is highlighted by the “value” in column BQ. Not to mention other system bets too.

    We also have the opportunity to lay in this race, however I am only going to back this top rated due to the weakness of the biases.

    WIN Selection: SAGA DE TERCEY

    Today’s example race is the 4:00pm Ascot.

    A small field and one that is dominated by the clear top rated, the bias in relation to the top rated makes this an ok race to back in.

    The biases also indicate only one horse has the potential to win the race.

    The previous form and master rating are both in blue indicating the horse horse strong form, opposed to the red previous form of the three rivals.

    The trainer is bang in form, and the jockey is a significant rider at the course.

    The horse is also a “value bet” as indicated by the “value” in column BQ, I have priced this horse up at 1.25 and is available at 1.8.

    WIN Selection: SHAMALI

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    25/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 25/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    Today’s example race is the 3:10pm York

    This looks a good opportunity for the clear top rated, both previous form and master are in blue indicating very strong form.

    The trainer is bang in form, and the jockey is a significant rider around the course.

    It is also a gd40 system bet.

    WIN Selection: KIRKLEES

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    24/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 24/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    Today’s example race is the 5:20pm Thirsk.

    A strong bias B and with two systems lays highlighted this is an easy choice of laying those two.

    I am looking to get matched around 10.00 on both lays.

    LAY Selections: BABYSHAMBLES & WICKED WILMA

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    23/07/09 Ratings

    Posted by advancedratings on 23/07/2009

    Today’s preview.

    You can find today’s race and ratings by clicking here.

    Today’s example race is the 6:05pm Epsom.

    I really fancy this one today and it is probably my strongest bet of the examples this week.

    The averages suggest we need to concentrate on the top two, the second rated however does have blue form which indicates strong form lines and is maybe one for the forecast.

    The top rated is clear and looks on a reasonable mark for its latest runs.

    WIN Selection: ROCKET ROB

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